Squiggle Tweaker
Variables
rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine
escalationOutsideUkraineGivenUkraineWasNuked
bigUKUSCityNukedGivenEscalationOutsideUkraine
remainingLifeExpectancyInYears
productiveHoursInDay
ableToEscapeBefore
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Underlying Squiggle Code
// Helpers aggregate(arr) = (List.reduce(arr, 1, {|acc, val| acc*val}) / (max(arr) * min(arr)))^(1/5) // Nuclear ukraine rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine = aggregate([0.27, 0.04, 0.02, 0.001, 0.09, 0.08, 0.07])// change me // Note that the period of time is left unspecified // Nuclear NATO escalationOutsideUkraineGivenUkraineWasNuked = aggregate([0.15, 0.09, 0.0013, 10^(-5), 0.01, 0.3, 0.05])// change me escalationToNATOUnconditional = rusiaUsesNuclearWeaponsInUkraine * escalationOutsideUkraineGivenUkraineWasNuked // Nuclear NATO to nuclear London/Washington bigUKUSCityNukedGivenEscalationOutsideUkraine = aggregate([0.4, 0.15, 0.9985, 0.05, 0.02, 0.002, 0.5])// change me bigUKUSCityUnconditional = escalationToNATOUnconditional * bigUKUSCityNukedGivenEscalationOutsideUkraine // Impact in lost hours remainingLifeExpectancyInYears = 40 to 60 // change me daysInYear= 365 productiveHoursInDay = 6 to 18 // change me ableToEscapeBefore = 0.5// change me proportionOfPeopleInLondonWhoDie = 0.7 expectedLostHours = bigUKUSCityUnconditional * (1 - ableToEscapeBefore) * proportionOfPeopleInLondonWhoDie * remainingLifeExpectancyInYears * daysInYear * productiveHoursInDay // Probably good to also estimate idiosyncratic factors such as // - Increased or decreased productivity in a city // - Increased or decreased impact in a city // - Value aaggregateigned to surviving in a world after a nuclear winter // - ... // Display { expectedLostHours: expectedLostHours }